#personal-development #decision #delegation #reasoning

Idea

Decouple decision and outcome. Decision can be good even if outcome is bad. A 5% chance of something still happens 5 times out of 100.

Outcomes are attributed to skill (in control) or luck (out of control). Self-serving bias is skewing the attribution. Reality is a mix of both, learning requires to analyze what we were in control of.

Links

• Delegation Frameworks must ensure the outcome can be tied somehow to the output, in other words: is the result really attributable to the action.
• Outcomes are caused by 2 types of Causality.
• Butterfly effect

References

• Thinking in bets, Annie Duke
• Everything is obvious, once you know the answer
• The old man lost his horse fable

Old man lost his horse.

• Bad luck said his neighbour
• Maybe said the old man Horse came back with a second horse.
• Good luck said his neighbour
• Maybe said the old man Old man gives the second horse to his son who falls and brakes his leg
• Bad luck said his neighbour
• Maybe said the old man A war breaks out the day after, all young men are drafted but his son
• Good luck said his neighbour
• Maybe said the old man.